Self-Driving Cars Gain Momentum in US

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In mid-2024, the US ride-hailing market has seen renewed
progress in autonomous vehicle technology after a slowdown in 2022
and 2023.

The summer of 2024 saw steady developments related to autonomous
vehicles (AV) in the United States. Self-driving startup Waymo
continues to be the leader, while disruptions at GM’s Cruise AV
division are proving to be a setback and, arguably, a situation
where the lessons learned may leave the division in a better
position.

Though progress has not come at the pace predicted in the
2017-18 period, potential for the technology to truly transform the
way people and goods move in society remains compelling.

Waymo: Still the front-runner

In the summer of 2024, Waymo’s parent Alphabet said it would
invest up to US $5 billion into the startup, which also unveiled
the sixth generation of its Waymo Driver autonomous driving system.
Waymo operates a fleet of nearly 800 self-driving vehicles in
California and more in Phoenix in the US, and it is the only one
collecting fares today, though GM’s Cruise fleet is also expected
to do so again sooner rather than later.

Waymo’s sixth-generation system features a more cost-effective
sensor setup with enhanced resolution, range, and computing power.
An optimized sensor suite provides overlapping fields of view all
around the vehicle, up to 500 meters away, day and night, and in a
range of weather conditions.

By optimizing sensor technology and placement, Waymo has reduced
the number of sensors while ensuring safety redundancies. The
modular sixth-generation system, according to Waymo, allows for
swapping out sensing components to adapt to specific environmental
conditions—for example, adding enhanced sensor cleaning for
colder climates. This generation is designed to operate reliably in
a wider range of inclement weather conditions, including heat, fog,
rain, and hail.

Earlier in 2024, Waymo started testing robotaxi services on
highways in San Francisco with the fifth-generation system after
several months of driving and collecting fares on city streets.
Service expansions in Phoenix, Los Angeles and San Francisco have
already begun.

Though almost a year later than expected, Waymo and electric
vehicle company Zeekr also partnered to test a robotaxi on public
roads in San Francisco in July 2024. By the end of August 2024,
Waymo’s US paid weekly robotaxi rides reached 100,000, versus
50,000 per week in May 2024.

However, US regulators at the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA) are investigating Waymo incidents related to
potential for crash, property damage and incidents of collisions
with “clearly visible” objects; at the time of this writing, the
investigation remains in a preliminary stage.

It’s not certain if the sixth-generation system addresses these
concerns, or what the agency’s conclusion will be. In 2023, Waymo
scaled back its work on deployment of its commercial delivery arm
Via to focus on the Waymo One ride-hailing program.

Cruise Automation

GM’s Cruise Automation saw a significant setback in October
2023, when it was involved as a secondary vehicle in a pedestrian
accident. The incident halted Cruise operations for several months,
put Cruise safety measures and development under scrutiny, an
independent investigation was undertaken, and most of Cruise’s
leadership was changed.

GM used the situation to help Cruise Automation restructure and
refocus, though it did not waver on its dedication and commitment
to Cruise. Like Waymo parent Alphabet, GM increased its investment
into Cruise in mid-2024. GM CEO Mary Barra said that the
developments caused Cruise to rethink its safety target: Instead of
aiming to be better than the average driver, the target is to be
“better than a role-model driver.”

However, GM also canceled the Origin AV shuttle project, sensing
more opportunity by focusing on the first-generation Bolt EVs
currently in the test fleet and an autonomous vehicle from the
next-generation Ultium-based Bolt EUV.

Cruise has already resumed operations in the US, starting with a
limited fleet of human-driven vehicles in Phoenix in April. Since
then, the company has expanded its operations to include Dallas and
Houston. It has not yet regained its previous permissions in
California.

In August, GM announced plans to offer Cruise robotaxis on
Uber’s platform. GM also revived its conversation around offering a
level-4 system on personal transportation, both in the context of
Cruise developments and on a Cadillac concept car.

The Cadillac products may be a natural place for early
deployment of personal-use autonomous vehicles. GM is planning an
Investor Day in October 2024 and has promised the event will
provide more insight into the company’s plans for Cruise and AV
development.

Updates on Tesla

Tesla continues to call its automated driving assist system,
which operates at a Level 2-plus point so far, by the Full
Self-Driving name, though the current version is now called
“supervised full self-driving.” The company continues to say it is
on the cusp of offering truly self-driving technology and enabling
its fleet to be robotaxis, although it has now delayed a reveal of
its robotaxi, initially expected in August, to October 10,
2024.

CEO Elon Musk has suggested that Tesla is considering an Air
BnB-style or Uber-style deployment, where owners make their
vehicles available to be rented through a Tesla site but own and
maintain the vehicles. The October 2024 reveal is expected to
answer a number of questions about Tesla’s readiness to deploy true
self-driving vehicle technology, but developing the vehicle program
would be a multi-year effort and is not expected before the 2026-27
time frame.

Where are we now?

A vision for broader deployment by early this decade was not
met. The actions around the COVID-19 pandemic slowed development
and created economic pressure for automakers. Decisions at some
OEMs to prioritize battery-electric vehicle development over
autonomous-vehicle technology development also seemed to stall
already dampened investor interest in tech startups, thus slowing
capital. From 2021 through 2023, advancement on autonomous vehicle
technology continued but the scope of the challenge remains
massive, so overall progress towards deployment appears to have
slowed.

In 2024, though the AV industry overall still faces a lack of
sufficient capital to support technology development, investment
announcements have come from parent companies of AV startups.
Progress has continued in mainland China as well due to the
development of regulations and standards, the establishment of
pilot zones, and the issuance of AV testing licenses.

S&P Global Mobility’s September 2024
Autonomy Forecasts describes sales of autonomous vehicles
growing slowly in the US. In 2034, sales of autonomous light
vehicles in the US is forecasted to reach about 230,000 autonomous
mobility-as-a-service units, suggesting market share of less than
1.5% per year a decade from now. In mainland China, development is
progressing more quickly. In that market, we forecast potentially
1.5 million autonomous vehicles sold in the country in 2034, or
about 5% of light-vehicle sales. Europe is expected to advance more
slowly than the US, however, with sales beginning later than either
the US or mainland China and rising to only 37,000 units in
2034.

Will autonomous vehicle technology prove to be as elusive as a
strong hydrogen economy, something for which scale deployment seems
perpetually 15 to 20 years in the future? Investment and expansion
in 2024 are encouraging in the US market, but challenges
remain.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.